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Prediction for CME (2014-01-07T18:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2014-01-07T18:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/4353/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2014-01-09T19:32Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-01-09T19:26Z (-10.0h, +10.0h)
Prediction Method: STOA
Prediction Method Note:

On Jan 7, 2014, at 4:01 PM, Murray Dryer wrote:
Nariaki, Kevin, Dave, and all,
 
Based on a NOAA/AF metric radio Type II report of a low corona shock speed, Vs = 1064 km/sec,
STOA predicts interplanetary shock arrival at Earth on 09 January 2014, 1926 UT +/-10hr.
 
Nariaki: you asked (below): "> >> I would like to know how people predicted the shock arrival time and other things from the eruption/M4 flare on 2014/01/04 18-19 UT (LASCO data outage until ~22 UT). The associated shock seems to have arrived at ACE at 2014/01/07 14:32 UT." The only information I have comes from the NOAA/SWPC/Boulder site for the ENLIL prediction that shows the shock prediction arrival from that M4 flare at about (eyeball) 1000 UT....I don't know if the NASA/Goddard folks made a prediction. I had had no Type II info...besides trying to keep warm.... and, hence, did not use the STOA model.
 
At this writing, there is no other prediction from today's X1.2 flare that I am aware of. Hopefully, Kevin can get LASCO CME data to help initiate the better 3DMHD models (ENLIL at Boulder and Goddard and H3DMHD at NRL.) 
 
Regards,
Murray

Lead Time: 46.53 hour(s)
Difference: 0.10 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-01-07T21:00Z

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